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Hurricane Forecast Model Output

Forecast Verification

Verification statistics provide a measure of what meteorologists refer to as forecast skill. A more-skillful forecast is one with lower forecast errors. So long as a skillful forecast is effectively communicated to those who would use it to take action (such as emergency managers to coordinate government response, or the general public to coordinate preparation activities), a more-skillful forecast is generally also a more valuable forecast.

Four types of verification plots are provided:

All verification statistics are calculated against the NHC's working best-track, or preliminary archive, data. Official verification procedures use the finalized best-track or archive data, which is not available until after each hurricane season is complete. Thus, the final statistics you see here for each storm may not match those produced by the NHC at the end of the season.

Finally, past performance is no guarantee of future outcomes. The atmosphere is chaotic - literally - and thus a model that had small errors for one time and/or one storm will not necessarily have small errors for another time and/or another storm.

Example track forecast verification statistics for North Atlantic Hurricane Nicole (2022)
Above: Example track forecast verification statistics for North Atlantic Hurricane Nicole (2022).

Disclaimer: The data displayed here are informational only and should NOT be used for making life and death decisions. Always take the word of official sources when preparing for any potential storm impact. The availability, timeliness, and reliability of these data are not guaranteed, and no liability is implied or expressed by your use of this website.