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Hurricane Forecast Model Output

Analog Forecast Charts

Analog plots are unavailable as of September 2023. We expect them to return by the start of the 2024 East Pacific and Atlantic hurricane seasons. We apologize for the downtime.

In meteorology, an "analog" refers to an event, pattern, etc. that is similar to the one being considered. For the last decade, we have been generating experimental analog forecast tracks for all active systems in the North Atlantic basin. These analogs rely on the similarity in the location, intensity, movement, and time of year between the active system and those in the past.

The weightings on current location, intensity, storm motion, and time of year in the current routine are as follows:

An analog score of 2.5 represents a location difference of 100 km (roughly 1 degree of latitude or longitude), a time of year difference of 33 days (roughly 1 month), an intensity difference of 10 kt, a forward speed difference of 5 kt, and a forward direction difference of 50 degrees (roughly W vs. NW). Similarity scores less than 5 indicate a very good match; similarity scores over 10 indicate poorer matches. As a result, unique or rare storms will inherently have larger scores than those that are less unique. The ten-best matches for each storm are retained and plotted.

Disclaimer: The data displayed here are informational only and should NOT be used for making life and death decisions. Always take the word of official sources when preparing for any potential storm impact. The availability, timeliness, and reliability of these data are not guaranteed, and no liability is implied or expressed by your use of this website.